攪局PC

    Gartner公司最新(xin)報(bao)告顯示，PC雖仍是人們的必需(xu)(xu)品，但因(yin)(yin)產品缺乏創(chuang)新(xin)，導致需(xu)(xu)求不振，產品壽(shou)命周期延(yan)長(chang)(chang)，同時受到平(ping)板電腦和(he)智能(neng)手機的兩面夾擊，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)不得不主要依(yi)靠(kao)新(xin)興(xing)市場(chang)(2011年(nian)將(jiang)占世(shi)界(jie)出貨(huo)量的一半(ban)以上)，難再有高速增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)。因(yin)(yin)而Gartner分別調(diao)低了2010年(nian)和(he)2011年(nian)的世(shi)界(jie)PC出貨(huo)量的增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)速度，2010年(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)14.3%(原(yuan)預(yu)測(ce)(ce)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)17.9%)，達3.52億(yi)臺，2011年(nian)續增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)15.9%(原(yuan)為(wei)18.1%)，達4億(yi)臺。Gartner公司預(yu)測(ce)(ce)，2014年(nian)可望取代10%的PC出貨(huo)量。iSuppli公司則(ze)預(yu)測(ce)(ce)，2011年(nian)世(shi)界(jie)PC出貨(huo)量將(jiang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)12.5%，平(ping)板電腦猛(meng)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)200%，2012年(nian)兩者分別增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)11.3%和(he)57%。

    臺(tai)(tai)灣(wan)集邦科技(Trendforce)公司旗(qi)下(xia)的(de)(de)(de)市(shi)場(chang)調查機構DRAM exchange日(ri)前發(fa)表了“平(ping)(ping)(ping)板(ban)(ban)(ban)電(dian)(dian)(dian)腦(nao)(nao)改變PC產業生態”的(de)(de)(de)報告(gao)，對PC中(zhong)各類產品(pin)(pin)作(zuo)了較(jiao)詳細的(de)(de)(de)分析。該(gai)機構預測，2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)世(shi)界PC市(shi)場(chang)(不含(han)平(ping)(ping)(ping)板(ban)(ban)(ban)電(dian)(dian)(dian)腦(nao)(nao))的(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)將(jiang)基本(ben)與(yu)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)持平(ping)(ping)(ping)，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)11.8%，達3.5億臺(tai)(tai)。其(qi)中(zhong)在以中(zhong)國、中(zhong)南美(mei)等為代(dai)表的(de)(de)(de)新興市(shi)場(chang)首(shou)(shou)臺(tai)(tai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)腦(nao)(nao)需求的(de)(de)(de)牽引下(xia)，今年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)仍可(ke)(ke)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)6%，達1.28億臺(tai)(tai)，占整(zheng)(zheng)個(ge)PC市(shi)場(chang)的(de)(de)(de)37%。筆記本(ben)電(dian)(dian)(dian)腦(nao)(nao)在平(ping)(ping)(ping)板(ban)(ban)(ban)電(dian)(dian)(dian)腦(nao)(nao)侵蝕、上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)網本(ben)退燒的(de)(de)(de)情況下(xia)，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)受阻(zu)，預計2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)出貨量(liang)僅增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)15.4%(低于(yu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均20%)，達2.23億臺(tai)(tai)，數量(liang)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)仍占整(zheng)(zheng)個(ge)PC的(de)(de)(de)64%。上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)網本(ben)自2007年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)市(shi)，2009年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)率(lv)(lv)登頂，年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)170%，達2840萬(wan)臺(tai)(tai)后，2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)即(ji)(ji)因出現(xian)平(ping)(ping)(ping)板(ban)(ban)(ban)電(dian)(dian)(dian)腦(nao)(nao)而受挫(特(te)別(bie)在歐美(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)腦(nao)(nao)成熟地區)，當年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)率(lv)(lv)減(jian)退到17%，計3330萬(wan)臺(tai)(tai)，由于(yu)價格、性能上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)的(de)(de)(de)差別(bie)，2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)雖還有(you)一定市(shi)場(chang)，但(dan)將(jiang)首(shou)(shou)次出現(xian)負增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(-2%)，萎(wei)縮(suo)到3260萬(wan)臺(tai)(tai)。自2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)4月蘋果公司推出iPad平(ping)(ping)(ping)板(ban)(ban)(ban)電(dian)(dian)(dian)腦(nao)(nao)，一炮打響，產品(pin)(pin)走俏，到三季度世(shi)界銷量(liang)即(ji)(ji)達750萬(wan)臺(tai)(tai)，估(gu)計整(zheng)(zheng)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)可(ke)(ke)銷1520萬(wan)臺(tai)(tai)，iPad的(de)(de)(de)搶手(shou)魅(mei)力，促使有(you)關廠商相繼攻入，2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)將(jiang)是世(shi)界平(ping)(ping)(ping)板(ban)(ban)(ban)電(dian)(dian)(dian)腦(nao)(nao)大躍進之年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，預期出貨量(liang)將(jiang)翻一番還多，達到5130萬(wan)臺(tai)(tai)，大約可(ke)(ke)取代(dai)700～1000萬(wan)臺(tai)(tai)筆記本(ben)電(dian)(dian)(dian)腦(nao)(nao)，特(te)別(bie)是其(qi)中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)網本(ben)。

    一(yi)句話，平(ping)板(ban)(ban)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)腦(nao)的出(chu)現或將(jiang)(jiang)真的改變世(shi)界PC業的生態(tai)。平(ping)板(ban)(ban)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)腦(nao)已成為(wei)IT業界的至愛(ai)，不但公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(據(ju)報道，蘋果(guo)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)將(jiang)(jiang)于(yu)2月推出(chu)iPad2)，三星公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)跟得最快，已發售Ga1axyTab，其他如Dell、聯想、Motorola等幾十家公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)都計劃推出(chu)自己的平(ping)板(ban)(ban)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)腦(nao)，Acer公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)CEO更豪情(qing)萬丈，放言未來幾年(nian)內(nei)該(gai)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)平(ping)板(ban)(ban)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)腦(nao)將(jiang)(jiang)成市場主流。美國(guo)花旗集(ji)團預測，2011年(nian)世(shi)界平(ping)板(ban)(ban)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)腦(nao)銷量(liang)將(jiang)(jiang)達(da)3500萬臺(tai)(tai)(tai)(iPad占3/4)，這(zhe)將(jiang)(jiang)使世(shi)界PC銷量(liang)的增長率從12%放緩(huan)到9%，共(gong)計4億臺(tai)(tai)(tai)。證券公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)FBRCapita1Markets更為(wei)樂(le)觀，預計2011年(nian)蘋果(guo)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)一(yi)家即將(jiang)(jiang)出(chu)售平(ping)板(ban)(ban)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)腦(nao)4000萬臺(tai)(tai)(tai)，其他公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)還有3000萬臺(tai)(tai)(tai)，并估計每出(chu)售2.5臺(tai)(tai)(tai)平(ping)板(ban)(ban)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)腦(nao)便(bian)將(jiang)(jiang)減少1臺(tai)(tai)(tai)PC的銷量(liang)。此(ci)外(wai)，令業界受到巨大挑戰(zhan)的將(jiang)(jiang)是利(li)潤的縮減，一(yi)向高利(li)潤的電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)腦(nao)業將(jiang)(jiang)面(mian)向消(xiao)費(fei)微利(li)的不斷演變。

    電視技術加快發展

    世(shi)界開始電(dian)視(shi)廣播至今已(yi)有80多年(nian)歷史，普及率極高，幾乎家(jia)家(jia)戶戶都有了電(dian)視(shi)。據DisplaySearch公司的報告(gao)，2010年(nian)世(shi)界電(dian)視(shi)的出貨量比上(shang)年(nian)增(zeng)長(chang)16%，達(da)2.43億(yi)臺，預測(ce)2011年(nian)將續增(zeng)4.9%，達(da)2.55億(yi)臺，展望2014年(nian)可達(da)2.88億(yi)臺，2009～2014年(nian)的年(nian)均增(zeng)長(chang)率為7%，一個成熟的產(chan)品能有這樣的增(zeng)長(chang)速度，足(zu)堪(kan)欣慰。

當然，現今(jin)電(dian)視(shi)(shi)銷售主要已(yi)是“替(ti)(ti)代”而不是“新(xin)購(gou)”了，“替(ti)(ti)代”在2010年已(yi)超過六成(cheng)，再次購(gou)買的電(dian)視(shi)(shi)大(da)多已(yi)是平(ping)板電(dian)視(shi)(shi)，2010年占84%，CRT電(dian)視(shi)(shi)日趨勢(shi)微(wei)。

    回顧電(dian)視技術的(de)發展歷史，可以看出，進入21世紀后電(dian)視技術的(de)發展速(su)度(du)在加快，原因說來也很簡單，創新是業界促進市場更迭的(de)不二法門。

    CRT電(dian)(dian)(dian)視一直(zhi)用到20世紀末，前后經(jing)(jing)(jing)歷了70多年(nian)(nian)，21世紀才踏入平板(ban)電(dian)(dian)(dian)視時代，2001年(nian)(nian)出(chu)現(xian)LCD電(dian)(dian)(dian)視(翌年(nian)(nian)PDP電(dian)(dian)(dian)視)，經(jing)(jing)(jing)過兩年(nian)(nian)時間，LCD電(dian)(dian)(dian)視便(bian)從(cong)CCFL(冷陰極(ji)熒光(guang)管)背光(guang)革新為背光(guang)，到新世紀第(di)一個(ge)十(shi)年(nian)(nian)末，便(bian)又相(xiang)繼出(chu)現(xian)了互聯網電(dian)(dian)(dian)視和(he)3D電(dian)(dian)(dian)視。相(xiang)比CRT電(dian)(dian)(dian)視，從(cong)黑(hei)白到彩色經(jing)(jing)(jing)歷了20年(nian)(nian)，又經(jing)(jing)(jing)近50年(nian)(nian)才從(cong)球形(xing)顯示器(qi)革新而(er)成平面顯示器(qi)。CRT一次革新要經(jing)(jing)(jing)歷幾十(shi)年(nian)(nian)，而(er)平板(ban)的革新僅為幾年(nian)(nian)，可見(jian)其(qi)速度(du)之快。

    2010年(nian)(nian)被稱為(wei)“3D電視元年(nian)(nian)”，據DisplaySearch公司(si)報(bao)告，世(shi)界(jie)3D電視市場將從320萬(wan)臺(tai)(tai)增長到2014年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)9000萬(wan)臺(tai)(tai)，年(nian)(nian)均增長率(lv)高達130%;聯(lian)網電視(WitsView預測(ce))將從2010年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)4000萬(wan)臺(tai)(tai)迅速發展到2014年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)1.6億臺(tai)(tai)，2015年(nian)(nian)可望沖上2億臺(tai)(tai)，2010～2015年(nian)(nian)間的(de)(de)年(nian)(nian)均增長率(lv)也達38%，發展速度(du)都(dou)很快，給了(le)業界(jie)無限(xian)期待。

    聯(lian)網(wang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)視(shi)(shi)(shi)先(xian)于3D電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)視(shi)(shi)(shi)問世(shi)，但到去年底才熱鬧起(qi)來，有(you)說(shuo)這是繼彩色電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)視(shi)(shi)(shi)、平板(ban)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)視(shi)(shi)(shi)之后的(de)(de)(de)(de)“第三(san)次(ci)(ci)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)視(shi)(shi)(shi)革命”;有(you)說(shuo)是對電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)視(shi)(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)“最終挑戰”。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)視(shi)(shi)(shi)無疑將向著聯(lian)網(wang)和(he)3D發展(zhan)，或(huo)者聯(lian)網(wang)及3D融合(he)發展(zhan)。隨(sui)著互聯(lian)網(wang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)興起(qi)，大部分電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)視(shi)(shi)(shi)節目可(ke)(ke)移到電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)腦上，或(huo)可(ke)(ke)稱為“電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)腦電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)視(shi)(shi)(shi)化(hua)”，而今聯(lian)網(wang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)視(shi)(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)出現(xian)(xian)，則是“電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)視(shi)(shi)(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)腦化(hua)”，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)視(shi)(shi)(shi)用(yong)代(dai)替(ti)鍵盤(pan)和(he)鼠標(biao)，內容獲取從(cong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)視(shi)(shi)(shi)臺(tai)轉向網(wang)絡(luo)，人(ren)們從(cong)“看”電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)視(shi)(shi)(shi)進入到“用(yong)”電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)視(shi)(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)時代(dai)。隨(sui)著Goog1eTV產品的(de)(de)(de)(de)問世(shi)，硬件勢力將不斷(duan)減弱(ruo)，內容與應用(yong)服務日益增強(qiang)。但聯(lian)網(wang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)視(shi)(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發展(zhan)也(ye)存(cun)在(zai)不少問題，首(shou)先(xian)，出現(xian)(xian)了“Cordcutting”(切斷(duan)有(you)線(xian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)視(shi)(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)線(xian))的(de)(de)(de)(de)口號，那電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)視(shi)(shi)(shi)臺(tai)和(he)網(wang)絡(luo)如何結合(he)應用(yong)?就是說(shuo)，聯(lian)網(wang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)視(shi)(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發展(zhan)可(ke)(ke)能(neng)會使傳統電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)視(shi)(shi)(shi)網(wang)遭滅頂之災;其次(ci)(ci)，聯(lian)網(wang)智(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)視(shi)(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發展(zhan)同時也(ye)要(yao)(yao)求用(yong)戶(hu)提(ti)高智(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)，操(cao)作繁雜，勢必遭到傳統用(yong)戶(hu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)強(qiang)烈抵制，操(cao)作必須(xu)簡單化(hua)，否則遙控器也(ye)難于替(ti)代(dai)和(he)鼠標(biao);再次(ci)(ci)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)腦、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)視(shi)(shi)(shi)如何恰當定(ding)位，內容太多了選擇也(ye)是要(yao)(yao)命的(de)(de)(de)(de)事。

    據(ju)外媒報道，在中、印手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)市場(chang)(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)強勁(jing)走勢(shi)、歐美越(yue)來越(yue)多的(de)(de)(de)(de)用戶購買第二部(bu)(bu)手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)以及智能手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長的(de)(de)(de)(de)驅動下，2010年(nian)(nian)世(shi)界手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)市場(chang)(chang)(chang)繼上年(nian)(nian)下降2%以后(hou)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長13%，達14億部(bu)(bu)左(zuo)右(you)。MobileWorld公司估計(ji)，當年(nian)(nian)世(shi)界己共擁(yong)有50億部(bu)(bu)手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)，占人(ren)口總數(shu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)73%。手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)應用到了十分普(pu)及的(de)(de)(de)(de)地步，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長不易。故Digitimes公司預測(ce)，2011年(nian)(nian)世(shi)界手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)市場(chang)(chang)(chang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)放緩到6.9%，從(cong)(cong)14.5億部(bu)(bu)上升(sheng)到15.5億部(bu)(bu)，據(ju)稱，該年(nian)(nian)世(shi)界手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)應用數(shu)量將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)首次(ci)超過固話(hua)。ABIResearch公司展望未(wei)來，認為世(shi)界手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)銷售將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)從(cong)(cong)2010年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)13.4億部(bu)(bu)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長到2015年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)17億部(bu)(bu)，年(nian)(nian)均增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長率(lv)近5%，溫(wen)和成長，尚算(suan)良好。未(wei)來手(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長動力(li)主要依靠的(de)(de)(de)(de)無疑已(yi)是(shi)用戶的(de)(de)(de)(de)換機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)和增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)購，尤(you)其是(shi)產品創新。

    說(shuo)到創新，今天最(zui)重(zhong)要的就是(Smartphone)，2010年獲(huo)得(de)長足(zu)進步，被稱為“智(zhi)能手(shou)機(ji)年”(eyearofthesmartphone)。

 IDC公司報道，2010年(nian)上半年(nian)世界(jie)智能手機(ji)(ji)銷量(liang)同(tong)比增長(chang)54%，達(da)1.18億部(bu)(估計(ji)全(quan)年(nian)銷量(liang)可約(yue)占(zhan)全(quan)部(bu)手機(ji)(ji)市(shi)場(chang)的20%)。IMSResearch公司預測，2009～2015年(nian)世界(jie)智能手機(ji)(ji)市(shi)場(chang)將以每年(nian)近26%的速度增長(chang)，從1.18億部(bu)提升(sheng)到(dao)7.1億部(bu)。智能手機(ji)(ji)市(shi)場(chang)崛起于美歐，但亞(ya)洲也是個很大的市(shi)場(chang)，并將不斷增長(chang)，同(tong)期市(shi)占(zhan)將從33%提升(sheng)到(dao)39%。

    展望智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)手(shou)機(ji)(ji)未來的發(fa)展，功(gong)能(neng)(neng)會越(yue)來越(yue)多，智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)不斷提(ti)高，產(chan)品(pin)趨向多元化。首先是隨(sui)著功(gong)能(neng)(neng)增(zeng)強，價(jia)格(ge)下降(jiang)，而用戶越(yue)來越(yue)多，智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)手(shou)機(ji)(ji)的銷量據(ju)稱(cheng)不久便將(jiang)占到(dao)全部手(shou)機(ji)(ji)的一半(ban);其(qi)次，智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)手(shou)機(ji)(ji)一旦(dan)變得(de)更(geng)加(jia)聰明(ming)，功(gong)能(neng)(neng)更(geng)多，那智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)手(shou)機(ji)(ji)之名(ming)已無法涵(han)蓋，例如Goog1e公(gong)司對其(qi)推出的Nexusone手(shou)機(ji)(ji)就稱(cheng)為“Superphone”，是可以聯網并放進口袋的電腦;再次，將(jiang)手(shou)機(ji)(ji)嵌入其(qi)他(ta)電子產(chan)品(pin)成為它的一部分(fen)，稱(cheng)為“Subphone”。

    一句話，未來手機不僅具有通信、游戲、、上網、照(zhao)相、錄像等(deng)功能(neng)，還(huan)可(ke)進行翻(fan)譯、識別、3D全息，等(deng)等(deng)，簡直(zhi)無所不(bu)能(neng)，因此有人說，智能(neng)手機未來(lai)甚至有可(ke)能(neng)成為拿在手里的一部超級電腦。